• News
  States

  National

  International

  Diocese

  Features
• Opinion
  Opinion & Analysis

  Forum
• Multimedia
  UCAN Video

  Photo Gallery
• Spirituality
  UCAN Spirituality

  Gospel Reflections
• Services
  Diocesan Directory

  Scholars Online

  Subscribe Newsletter

  Books

  Music
• About Us
  About us

  Contact us

  Terms and Conditions

  Privacy Policy

Elections are no longer a once-in-five-year phenomenon. In 1952 when they were first held under the brand-new Constitution, it was a countrywide affair in which voters exercised their franchise to choose a government at the Centre and in the states concerned. Over a period of time, elections got staggered. The elections now taking place in Uttar Pradesh, Uttarakhand, Punjab, Goa and Manipur are considered a mini-general election because of the large size of the electorate and the issues involved.

It was once said that any party which ruled Uttar Pradesh ruled India because of its sheer size. Even after the creation of Uttarakhand, UP accounts for 16 per cent of the country’s population, i.e., 199.5 million according to the 2011 census. If UP was an independent nation, it would have been the fifth most populous nation in the world, though its economy is smaller than that of tiny Qatar.

UP lost much of its political importance when the Congress, despite losing heavily in the state in 1991, was able to form a government at the Centre with the late P.V. Narasimha Rao as the Prime Minister. For once, the indispensability of UP’s support for government formation stood exposed. Even so, no national political party can ignore UP, which sends 80 MPs to the Lok Sabha. It’s, therefore, no surprise that it witnesses the toughest contest.

UP Chief Minister Mayawati was able to provide a stable government because of the stunning victory her Bahujan Samaj Party (BSP) achieved in the last elections. The secret of her success was that she was able to bring the Dalits, a large section of the Muslims and the Upper caste Brahmins on a common platform. This was the winning formula of the Congress till the Ayodhya movement for the demolition of the Babri Masjid picked up momentum culminating in the demolition of the centuries-old Muslim shrine.

By announcing elections two months before her term was to end, the Election Commission sprang a surprise on her. A few weeks earlier, she caused flutters in political circles by mooting a proposal to divide the state to form four separate states called Purvanchal, Bundelkhand, Avadh Pradesh and Paschim Pradesh. Before the demand could gather steam, elections were announced. Needless to say, her move certainly did not set the Gomti on flames.

Mayawati’s regime is known more for its acts of symbolism like erecting monuments for Dalit icons like Dr B.R. Ambedkar, who drafted the Constitution, Kanshi Ram, who founded the BSP, and Mayawati herself at Noida, near New Delhi, and Lucknow, than for its administrative acumen. The 2009 Lok Sabha elections, when the Congress won more seats than the BSP, showed that the ground had turned slippery for the ruling party.

Congress General Secretary and heir-apparent Rahul Gandhi has been campaigning vigorously for the party. The question is how the tie-up the Congress has forged with Ajit Singh’s party, which has pockets of influence in western UP, would benefit it. His relative success in the 2009 elections was on account of a section of the Muslim voters returning to the Congress fold. The Centre’s decision to provide 4.5 per cent reservation for the backwards among the minority communities like Muslims and Christians within the 29 per cent quota for Other Backward Classes is expected to make the Congress more appealing to the Muslims, who can tilt the balance in at least one-third of the total 403 seats.

However cynical the quota move is, given the difficulties such a proposal encountered in Andhra Pradesh, it will definitely benefit the Congress. Few take the BJP’s claim seriously, as the party has been facing setbacks after setbacks since the disastrous demolition of the masjid. Its import of the much-discredited Uma Bharti, whom the party itself had dislodged from the chief ministership of Madhya Pradesh, to lead the campaign is a pointer to its political bankruptcy.

Mulayam Singh Yadav’s Samajwadi Party is no longer in the pink of health with uncertainties about the loyalty of the Muslims and the Rajputs, who were once its powerful backers. In a four-cornered contest, predictions are impossible. The state, which is at the rock bottom on almost all indices of growth like literacy, certainly deserves a forward-looking government.

In neighboring Uttarakhand, the question is whether the ruling BJP would be able to keep the state under its control. It sought to fight anti-incumbency by replacing Ramesh Nishank Pokhriyal, who faced corruption charges, with Bhuvan Chandra Khanduri as Chief Minister. Rahul Gandhi has high stakes in the elections, which captured headlines in the Press, because of a shoe hurled at an Anna Team member campaigning for the BJP. Yoga guru Ramdev is another heavyweight supporting the ruling party.

The Punjab voters have been favoring the Congress and the Shiromani Akali Dal in alternate elections. Logics, therefore, suggests that the Congress under Captain Amarinder Singh would get a chance this time. For Chief Minister Prakash Singh Badal, who wants to anoint his son and Deputy CM Sukhbir Badal, as his successor, it is a do-or-die kind of situation. What has upset the SAD-BJP alliance is the arrival on the electoral scene a party floated by Sukhbir Badal’s rival and relative Manpreet Singh Badal.

For Manipur Chief Minister Okhram Ibobi Singh, it will be a tough task to retain his post for a third time because of not only the unity of the opposition groups but also the appeal for a Greater Nagaland that will take away the Naga-inhabited areas of the state. While Singh has provided political stability to the state, his is considered a government by the contractors, of the contractors and for the contractors. Those who want to play it safe would find in him their best bet. By removing the hated Armed Forces (Special Powers) Act, against which Irom Sharmila has been on a hunger strike for 11 years, from some districts, he has given the Congress a fighting chance.

In Goa, the Congress’ chance depends a lot on keeping its alliance with the Nationalist Congress Party (NCP) intact. Though the BJP is a house divided against itself, it has the potential to turn the applecart against the ruling combine. Much will also depend on the kind of candidates the two parties field in the elections.

Unfortunately, in these elections, too, candidates with a criminal background find a prominent place in the list of candidates, particularly in UP. These are the first elections since the days of Team Anna’s campaign for a strong Lok Pal. It was expected to make a big impact but developments like Anna Hazare’s fast fizzling out in Mumbai and his Team members themselves facing charges of corruption have deprived it of its appeal.

While corruption and law and order are electoral issues, they do not benefit any particular party as each one of them harbors criminals and encourages corruption. As Bihar had proved that development could be the mantra for victory, every party mouths it, leaving the voter bewildered. Hopes that the UPA government would be able to kick-start second-generation reforms after the elections would be proved wrong, as Gujarat would go to polls by the year-end, when it would be time to prepare for the next Lok Sabha elections.


The writer is a New Delhi-based senior journalist. He can be reached at ajphilip@gmail.com